The Data Detective

Abraham Bredius was an art critic, collector, and world-renowned expert on Dutch painters. He had special expertise when it came to Johannes Vermeer, the seventeenth-century master revered for works like Girl With a Pearl Earring.

One day in 1937, a lawyer named Gerard Boon paid Bredius a visit to show him a recently discovered Vermeer painting called Christ at Emmaus. Bredius was immediately awestruck,⁠ but he was still careful. He inspected the painting for all the signs of forgery –⁠ and found none.

Bredius declared Emmaus a genuine Vermeer, perhaps even his finest work. He also said that when he saw the painting, he “had difficulty controlling his emotion.” Unfortunately, Bredius’s heightened emotions were his undoing – because Christ at Emmaus was totally fake.

The key message here is: Notice your emotional reactions to data and information.

Emmaus wasn’t even a very good painting, but still, Bredius was fooled. He wanted so badly to believe that Emmaus was a genuine Vermeer that his emotions clouded his logical reasoning. Unfortunately, most people are likely to be fooled in just the same way when presented with information that stirs their emotions.

Some statistics don’t cause emotional reactions –⁠ no one gets upset when they hear “Mars is more than 30 million miles away from Earth.” But other issues –⁠ particularly political ones –⁠ easily get a rise out of us.

When that happens, we’re likely to ignore the information if it doesn’t fit our preconceived beliefs or use it as evidence if it does. Expertise in a subject doesn’t make us immune to that effect –⁠ in fact, some studies have shown that experts are even less likely to change their opinions in the face of contradictory evidence. That’s because they’re both motivated to avoid uncomfortable information and good at producing arguments in their own favor.

So no one is immune to motivated reasoning. Fortunately, following a couple of simple protocols can help you reduce your likelihood of doing it.

It starts with noticing how you feel when you see a statistical claim. Are you outraged, overjoyed, or in denial? After noticing your emotions, pause and reflect to see whether you’re straining to reach a particular conclusion. Your commitment to weighing the facts will help you think more clearly – and, as an added bonus, you’ll set an example of clear thinking for others, too.